HÀ NỘI — The market is forecast to maintain its uptrend during the first sessions in the Year of the Rat, according to securities companies and experts.
The benchmark VN-Index on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange finished the last trading day of the Year of the Pig (January 23) at 991.46 points.
In the final trading week before Tết (Lunar New Year) holiday, the index rose a total 1.27 per cent.
The HNX Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange ended January 23 up 0.65 per cent, closing at 106.28 points, ending the week 2.31 per cent higher than the previous one.
According to Bảo Việt Securities Co (BVSC), successfully penetrating through the resistance zone of 970-972 points, the market is trending upward and will possibly approach a resistance zone of 995-1,000 points in the short term.
“Historically, this zone has challenged the market many times. Therefore, we leave open the possibility that the market will face volatility and correction pressure at this zone,” BVSC said.
According to BVSC's statistics, since 2010, the market has usually increased in 10 sessions after the Tết holiday with a strong increase in trading volume and value. In 8 out of 10 observed years, the VN-Index increased at an average of 4.31 per cent. Trading volume increased in 8 out of 10 years, with an average increase in those 8 years at 45.03 per cent and trading value increased in 9 of 10 years with an average increase of 40.31 per cent.
History shows that Việt Nam's stock market has a high probability of going up after Tết. Most securities companies forecast that the VN-Index may surpass 1,000 points this year, according to Người Đồng Hành online newspaper.
In 2020, Việt Nam’s stock market turns 20 years old.
According to the e-newspaper’s statistics, in 13 out of 19 years the VN-Index increased in the last five days before Tết, and in 12 out of 19 years the VN-Index rose in the first five days after Tết.
Lê Đức Khánh, director of market strategy department at PetroVietnam Securities (PSI) told Người Đồng Hành that factors supporting the market this year include stable economic growth, which is still the driving force for Việt Nam to be an attractive destination for global investment flows, including both direct and indirect investment.
“Việt Nam’s stock market will continue going up in 2020, but in a narrow band,” Khánh said.
In 2020, foreign investors may continue their capital disbursement, as this is the year in which the Government and ministries will strongly promote the equitisation and divestment process of SOEs, Khánh said.
Đinh Quang Hinh, director of the market strategy division at VNDirect Securities Corporation's analysis department, said a factor that can have a positive impact on the stock market in 2020 is the profit growth of listed enterprises, which is forecast to reach 18 per cent, a significant improvement from the rate of 14.5 per cent in 2019.
The expert from VNDirect said that the VN-Index may head towards 1,160 points at the end of this year mostly thanks to the profit growth improvement of listed companies.
Hinh expects there will be some positive information to cool down trade tensions between the US and China in 2020, especially the upcoming US Presidential election that will take place in late 2020.
Hinh also believes that the banking group will be the growth pillar to lead the market up.
According to Hinh, the banking sector continues to be the main growth engine of the market. Food and beverage and retail sectors will also flourish thanks to growing domestic consumption in 2020. The information and technology group will also thrive thanks to the Government’s favourable development policies and incentives. — VNS
